How to find a Winning Betting Strategy

It's strange how people view betting. Not meaning to sound nasty, but most people don't know much at all. Perhaps that sounds a bit harsh, but sadly it is a predictable truth. From the first day of betting to their last – very little changes. That's why I'm giving you a heads up on the racing tips page of Mare's sponsor on OLBG.com. It's a great resource and free. 

Their potential lays dormant. Like a volcano. Except they are never going to erupt into a spurge of winners. Fair enough, lady luck, with a purple streak in her blonde hair may appear once in a while but even she is fleeting, desperate to get out of the room. As she leaves, she does that hand gesture like a petulant teenager, hand to head, which indicates LOSER.

How right she is.

You may be reading this post and fuming. Some know-it-all bloke saying this, that and the other. Who does he think he is?

Any gambler who speaks such words is doing you a favour because your average Joe won't.

So what is the strategy?

Make a change. Make it the next race. Your betting is like a cocktail of horses, greyhounds, mixed with a splash of bingo. It's a toxic concoction of hope and despair. A lethal mix like non-flammable absinthe SERVED IN A MUG.

Winning at gambling takes two routes: pure luck or skill.

Luck works like this:

Your friend sees you walk into the bookmakers with this amazing-looking blonde with a purple streak in her hair. You were going to bet on the favourite but as you turned away from the race cards on the wall to chat with some old bloke with a one-eyed greyhound [called Lucky], you looked back at the wall. By mistake, you write down the name of the 33/1 rag. It loses by a nose but got the verdict in the stewards' room. On the way home, you find a fifty-pound note, stop at the pub, get drunk after seeing the blonde girl with the stylish locks leave with some other bloke whose holding a Racing Post.

The skill works like this: 

You realise there aren't enough hours in the day. You decide to work in a niche and find your own way of selecting winners. It doesn't come easy but you don't give up. You work hard as if polishing a stone. Over time it begins to shine. You realise that dirty rock is a diamond. You look around and there is no blonde woman with a purple streak in her hair. But you don't need to worry. Lady luck can do her own thing. You concentrate on business as usual.

Betting on the horses is no different than betting on the stock market. Knowledge is power.

The next time you go into the bookmakers do one thing – think. Don't think about the next bet. Think about the understanding, logic, and reason behind the next bet. If there is no substance, then leave quickly.

The truth of betting is in the foundation of your wisdom.

As the quote goes: ''The wise man built his house upon the rocks.''Kinks who has proven a fair juvenile.


The Next Frankel (Perhaps!)

The two-year-old Flat season is well underway. I hope you have been following all the action on our sister website Group Horse Daily. To make the most of your bets you may wish to open an account with www.novibet.co.uk who not only covers horse racing but many sports.

Group Horse details the best two-year-old horses in training: colts, fillies & gelding. You may have seen a few updates on our pages which have detailed a number of talented debutantes for leading trainers. What do they have in common? They won on their racecourse bow. There is something scintillating about a winning debutante. Unblemished. Victorious. The feeling of what could be. We have only to look back to the likes of Frankel. Sir Henry Cecil's wonder horse who won 14 races without loss.

Major wins 2010:

  • Royal Lodge Stakes
  • Dewhurst Stakes

Major win 2011:

  • Greenham Stakes
  • 2000 Guineas Stakes
  • St. James' Palace Stakes
  • Sussex Stakes (2102)
  • Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Major wins 2012:

  • Locking Stakes  
  • Queen Anne Stakes  
  • International Stakes  
  • Champion Stakes


The exception to the rule. Frankel was named 1st in the World Thoroughbred Ranking 2011, 2012. European Horse Of The Year 2011, 2012. European Champion Two-Year-Old Colt 2010. Champion European Three-Year-Old Colt 2011. European Champion Older Horse 2012.

Clearly, exceptional talent like Frankel are few and far between. One of the greatest horse trainers of all time had to wait a lifetime. A fitting epitaph to Sir Henry Cecil, a true gentleman.

Group Horse loves to detail the best of the best. It's no easy task to name debutantes who are likely to win at the first time of asking. However, take a look at these 5 talented juveniles who are likely to be seen before the end of the season.

Charlie Appleby:

Art Du Val is a talented son of No Nay Never who costs 120,000 Guineas, owned by Godolphin. This March foal was meant to run at Newmarket in mid-July but was withdrawn. He was fancied in the betting that day and been given a couple of significant entries which are signs this colt is going places. Definitely one for the notebook.

Mick Channon:

The trainer from West Ilsley, Berks, has a couple of horrendous years where his string and the standard of his juveniles dropped off a cliff. Thankfully, this season has seen an upturn and a good few winners. Converter is worth taking note. This bay colt is a son of Swiss Spirit out of a limited mare. He cost 52,000 Guineas at the (2yo) breeze-up sales. The betting is key for Channon's debutantes. Very few win when priced over 8/1 so I would use this betting guide for assessment. A few horses have won outside this range and they have proven to be very talented indeed. Converter is just one of two horses to be entered for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2). The other horse being Kinks who has proven a fair juvenile.

Ed Dunlop:

A very talented trainer who doesn't waste his money entering two-year-olds for no reason. Global Warning is a son of Poet's Voice and half brother to two Group two winning sprinters. It cost 155,000 Guineas. Interesting to note this juvenile has been given an entry for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) in the ownership of Dr. Johnny Hon. 


I Lost The Winning Lottery Ticket!

Sometimes it pays to know where you put your lottery ticket. That's why it's a good idea to play with Games at LottoGo. So what happened to the poor couple who lost their winning lottery ticket!

A joyous first wedding anniversary had been a day that Martyn & Kay Tott would never forget. They had won the lottery. A £3 million fortune that would change their life. However, the loss of their ticket turned out to be ''the cruelest torture imaginable''.

The couple saw a TV appeal about an unclaimed jackpot. The ticket had been won in their town and when checking the numbers on Teletext – recognising their own! The winning numbers: 6, 7, 11, 23 and 44.

They searched their flat high and low but the winning lottery ticket was nowhere to be found. Contacting Camelot with their devastating news, they had an agonising seven weeks to satisfy officials they were the rightful winners. However, even though the ticket was proven to be theirs – there was a big problem.

A 30-day limit to report a winning ticket had come and gone. The company had no legal obligation to pay to shatter the couple's dreams and putting a strain on their marriage.

Mrs. Tott said: ''Thinking you're going to have all that money is really liberating. Having it taken away has the opposite effect.''

Her husband had been dreaming of leaving his job, buying a house and starting a family. Not forgetting the new Porsche or Audi!

Their combined earnings of £34,000 seemed all the smaller in the shadow of the £3 million prizes.

Mr. Tott said: ''Going to work is hard. I can't help thinking if I had £3 million in my hand, I wouldn't be here. People have noticed something is wrong. I've been staring at the wall for the last seven weeks. The secret is out – so at least they understand.''

Not surprisingly, the couple believes the rules are too rigid and that Camelot hasn't treated them fairly.

''They know we are the winners! They should pay up!''

Amazingly 115 people called Camelot saying it was their winning ticket. A range of excuses from the ticket being destroyed in the washing machine to eaten by the pet dog. However, the Tott's set themselves apart by naming the shop and time the ticket was purchased. In addition, they had selected the same numbers at the same shop for the past five weeks.

They had proved the ticket was theirs. However, Camelot's legal advisers wouldn't pay up.

The National Lottery Commission said: ''The rule stands.'' Mr & Mrs. Tott couldn't have the £3 million prize but were offered counseling which they declined.

The £3,011,065 prize is the largest unclaimed amount since the lottery began in 1994.

  

Three horses bookies expect to win at Royal Ascot

 Five days of top-class horse racing takes place at Royal Ascot between Tuesday 19th June and Saturday 23rd June in one of the real standouts on the summer schedule. The curtain goes up with the Queen Anne Stakes and there are another two Group One races that day and eight in total for the week.

That includes the King’s Stand Stakes, Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and the ever-popular Gold Cup which goes to post on Thursday. There’s plenty of early value on offer to punters shrewd enough to find the winners but those needing a bit of a helping hand will find assistance from over at Timeform with every race covered in-depth.

You may prefer to put your trust in the traders and support the hot-favourites of the week. Backing the shortest prices is one way to plan your attack on the bookies and below you’ll find a selection of horses priced like losing isn’t an option.

Sergei Prokofiev – Coventry Stakes

It remains to be seen which race Sergei Prokofiev will run in at this year’s Royal Ascot, but he’s expected to make an appearance and odds-makers are very confident he’ll win the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday if aimed at the 6f group two contest.

Aidan O’Brien’s impressive two-year-old colt is also quoted favourite in the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday but those in the know see an earlier ride as a more likely outcome and Paddy Power have 2/1 chalked on the betting board. The bay colt has finished no higher than second in any of his three starts to date with that form showing two golds and a silver. The spare came on debut back in April when ending behind Skitter Skatter despite being an odds-on shot at Dundalk. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop.

Sergei Prokofiev got off the mark at the second time of asking when scoring in a five-furlong dash at Navan and followed that with victory last time out in the Rochestown Stakes, a listed race also decided over the 5f sprint distance. The victor had runner-up Andre Amar four lengths behind with a strong finish suggesting there’s plenty more in the tank. Connections expect to see it in front of the sold-out Berkshire stands.

Lah Ti Dar – Ribblesdale Stakes

The Ribblesdale Stakes is a Group Two class race run on Thursday over 1m 4f and those who hold the purse strings have set-up camp in support of Lah Ti Dar who carries a race record of two runs – two wins. What this three-year-old lacks in experience she more than makes up for in class and genuine speed and experts know she’s a runner worth keeping on the right side of, especially at this stage of her career.

John Gosden’s pride made a winning start to life on track at Newbury in April with backers collecting the profits from a cracking 7/2. Traders dropped the ball that day, but they weren’t long in recognising her class and her odds were much shorter when doing the double at Newmarket a fortnight later. Lah Ti Dar, ridden by Frankie Dettori, scooped the fillies' Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over the snappier trip of 1m 2f but shaped like a step up in distance wouldn’t be a problem.

The team now has a fantastic opportunity to land a hat-trick and really show off Lah Ti Dar’s talents to the wider racing public. There’s no more than 5/2 in the ante-post betting about the Ribblesdale crown being added to the mantlepiece.

Crystal Ocean – Hardwicke Stakes

The third and final leg of the week’s hot-picks should run in the Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday afternoon, the last day of action. Another Group Two, one mile three furlongs lies ahead of a talented field and Crystal Ocean is expected to lead them across the line.

Sir Michael Stoute rates as the race’s leading trainer with 10 visits to the winner’s enclosure already in the bag. Dartmouth was the most recent of them when banking the prize money two years ago and smart punters expect the well-traveled and highly decorated trainer to strengthen his grip this year.

Crystal Ocean won half of his first eight outings and has never ended outside of the top-three. The four-year-old colt warmed up for Royal Ascot by banking the Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury in spring – beating Second Step by six lengths – and he’s around the 15/8 mark to take his tally to five wins.

How Important Is Racing At 2 Years Old?

 Two-year-old horse racing is frequently looked at as a gateway to success in the years to follow. It is the reason that so many horse racing enthusiasts are such big fans of tracking horses at that age to find out who the next big things in the sport might be. But after the first leg of the Triple Crown, is it better to be a two-year-old with little to no experience?

The latest case of an unraced two-year-old going from untested to at the top of the heap is Justify, who won the Kentucky Derby. Justify pulled off that feat on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs after a miserable day of weather in Kentucky. More importantly, Bob Baffert's colt managed to do something that hadn't been done since the late 1800s when he won the Kentucky Derby after not racing at age two.

Justify is favoured to win the Preakness Stakes as well, which is the second leg of the Triple Crown. And while he is anything but a sure thing to claim the race at Pimlico, Justify is in a great position to strike a blow in the name of unraced two-year-olds with a strong showing in the Preakness. Were he to win that race, he would be just one win away from being the second horse since 1980 to win the Triple Crown.

What makes racing at age two such an interesting proposition is the fact that horses are not fully developed at that age in most cases. The bones of the horse especially are not yet fully grown, which makes the subject of racing at age two a divisive one. In some cases, racing at age two is great for strengthening a horse who needs the training to be great when it gets older. But in others, racing as a two-year-old can only harm the horse. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to racing at age two, but seeing the decision not to race Justify as a two-year-old pay off with a Kentucky Derby win is a huge victory for Baffert and company.

It will be interesting to see if Justify can keep his Triple Crown run going given how difficult it is to sustain such a high level of racing. Over at William Hill, the colt is favoured to win the Preakness and is at strong odds to claim the Triple Crown. That is an encouraging sign for the horse and for its team but is a sign that racing at two years old isn't essential for success when it comes time for a horse to take part in the biggest races in the sport.

As always, it is important for horses to be treated on a case-by-case basis. And it is just as important for horse racing enthusiasts to know these horses that are not being raced at a formative age, so they can see the next Triple Crown contender before they become a big deal.

Chesham Stakes Listed Race - History & Trends

 Are you ready for Royal Ascot? What does the festival mean to you? Horse racing at its best, betting, champagne, beautiful ladies, men in suits, fun, glamour and so much more. I went to this meeting many years ago and the pomp and ceremony is something to behold. The sight of the royal procession and cheering crowd truly captivating. No wonder it is such a successful meeting. From the 19th - 24th June, racegoers can enjoy Royal Ascot hospitality an experience you will never forget.

We love two-year-old horse racing. With 6 high-profile races to have a bet, we take a look at the Chesham Stakes Listed race.

When is the race?

24th June, Saturday, 2:30. The first race on day 5 of the Royal meeting.

A Brief History

This Listed race is open to two-year-old colts and fillies, run over a distance of 7f. It was named after the 3rd Baron Chesham. It's inaugural running in 1919 over a distance of 5f. It was changed to 7f in 1966. Entry for this race is dependent on the sire, who must have won at a distance exceeding 1 mile one and a half furlongs.

Paul Cole and Aidan O'Brien are the leading trainers with 4 wins each (since 1986). Impressive horses including Berkshire and Churchill.

The leading jockey since 1986 is Frankie Dettori with 4 wins.

A number of exceptional talents have won this race over the years.

Be My Chief (1989)

Henry Cecil did well with this son of Chief's Crown who won the Chesham Stakes in good style. He went on to win the Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) at the end of the two-year-old season when racing at Doncaster.

A couple of eye-catchers from Aidan O'Brien are worthy of mention.

In 2011, Maybe was unbeaten in five races at two going on to take the Moyglare Stakes (Group 1) and named European Champion two-year-old 2011. An exceptional talent.

Probably the best winner of the Chesham Stakes was seen in 2016. Churchill (pictured), son of the impressive sire Galileo, won five pattern races at two. However, he was even more successful at three winning the English and Irish 2000 Guineas. He was named Cartier Champion Two-year-old 2016 & European Champion Two-year-old 2016. He won almost $2 million in prize earnings.

Trends

Over the last fifteen years, we have seen a number of different trainers proving successful. Aidan O'Brien has won the last two years with Churchill (2016) and September (2017). He also won with Maybe in (2011).

Major pointers to winning this contest.

In the last ten years, the average price winner has been 9/1.

Favourites often struggle to win which indicates second and third favourites are interesting.

However, there have been a few big priced winners: 16/1, 22/1 & 25/1 respectively.

Horses drawn in lower numbers seem to have an advantage.

Most winners have won on their previous start.

In general, fancied horses from major stables make the best bets.

Other notable two-year-old races:

Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)

Coventry Stakes (Group 2)

Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)

Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)

Albany Stakes (Group 3)


Three Ways to Narrow Down the Grand National Field

The Grand National is always a hugely enjoyable spectacle and is one of the most-watched sporting events of the year. The world-famous steeplechase is always incredibly competitive and, with a field of 40 runners taking to the Aintree course, predicting the winner is not always easy. We detail three ways of narrowing down this extensive field, which will help eliminate several of the runners from your calculations.

It is one of the toughest races to crack and there are a number of helpful pointers and statistics available online which can be used to help find the winner of this traditionally complex contest. There are plenty of form tips at Timeform, all of which are available ahead of the iconic race, with Ucello Conti and Total Recall the pick of them, and there is also valuable insight from a number of National Hunt experts. If you're brave enough to wade through the racecard yourself, here are three things you might want to take into consideration.

Make Sure Your Selection Has the Requisite Stamina

The race competes over the four miles and 514 yards and stamina is an absolute necessity. Since the year 2000, every single winner has previously been victorious over three miles or greater, with a number of them, including 2017 victor One for Arthur, having competed over further. Races that are longer than three and a half miles are few and far between on the racing calendar, so it's important to ensure that your selection is able to stay in contention until the business end of the contest. The fences have been reduced in size and the speed of the race has increased in recent years, which has placed a greater emphasis on stamina and you should instantly rule out any horse which doesn't have a victory of three miles or greater to its name.

Don't Opt for Horses Carrying a Big Weight

The handicapper's job is to ensure the race is fair and therefore the better horses are regularly burdened with top weight. Horses will carry anything between 10st and 11st 10lbs in this race and whilst Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have both defied high weights over the past decade, the majority of winners have been carrying significantly less. The aforementioned One for Arthur was carrying 10st 11lbs for Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox whilst Rule the World romped home with an even lighter load just twelve months earlier. There will always be one or two experienced campaigners who somehow manage to defy a huge weight but it is generally advised to rule out any competitor who is lumbered with 11st or more.

Younger Horses Tend to Struggle

During the last 30 renewals of the Aintree Grand National, only three eight-year-olds have been victorious. Many Clouds, whose victory defied all statistical analysis, was the last of these youngsters to enjoy success in Merseyside. 25 of the last 30 winners were aged between nine and eleven and that is the suggested age-group to target. The race is open to 7-year-olds and above and, whilst there is no upper age-limit, 12-year-olds are rarely successful in this event - Amberleigh House was the last of those experienced runners to succeed back in 2004.

There will always be the occasional winner who will buck all of the previous trends; however, if you follow these three rules, that tricky-looking 40-runner field will soon be narrowed down. This should make it much easier to find the winner of this prestigious steeplechase and help make that crowded racecard look a little less daunting.